What a lovely Monday morning!
In my years as an analyst, I really learned to enjoy Monday mornings, and I want to present you something special on this fabulous morning!
In the past weeks I designed this new cycle model which should help investors understand the past cycles of bitcoin, how they function, and it allows me to make assumptions on how the future will play out. First, I want to point out that some counts may be confusing for traders who are used to logarithmic counts. As is stated in the past, I think that only focusing on logarithmic wave movements is foolish, because you always need to look at the waves from a “price” scale too.
Remember how the famous “Stock to Flow” Model was partially wrong about the price goals of the last bull market, the praised rainbow chart needed to be redrawn because it FAILED and how famous investors Plan_Bitcoin was wrong about bitcoin hitting 100K this cycle?
They all have something in common… They all focus solely on logarithmic scales and the more bitcoin extends on the price scale (not logarithmic!) the more these models will continue to fail!
So, regarding the chart, I want to give you all some additional information.
The last three Cycle Highs were labeled as “Cycle Top X” and the bottom of the bear markets were labeled as “Cycle Bottom X”. We were lucky to enjoy three separate cycles in bitcoin, however bitcoins history from mere cents to 20$ is not accounted for. In this time no halving occurred and the historic timeframe doesn’t allow me to conclude a whole cycle from it. The bull markets in all Cycles are summarized in two separate phases. The “Cycle Consolidation” (marked in orange) phase highlights the time when bitcoin finally bottomed out, but didn’t experienced the halving event yet. After the halving, the “Cycle Bullrun” starts in which bitcoin establishes a parabolic rally and finally tops at a certain point. The duration of these different phases are mostly the same in every cycle, but sometimes they go on longer or shorter than expected.
The important thing for investors right now is, that we estimate that bitcoin found its final bottom at exactly the 22nd of November 2022. Since then, we gradually established higher high’s, therefore we expect that the orange phase of a “Price Consolidation” has started. We estimate that bitcoin will reach 35K or even 40k before the halving next year, currently this event is projected to happen on 24th of April 2024. The whole “Price Consolidation” is estimated to dominate the market for 518 days, and after that the “Cycle Bullrun” should account for 410 days.
I remain very bullish on bitcoin’s future, and my price target range of at least 120’000$ to 180’000$ is still valid. However, we will have a long way to go until there, and bitcoin has a lot of work to do!
Below can be seen our most recent Elliot wave count for bitcoin, currently we have reason to believe that the price is inside a wave (iii) which should push us above 35’000$ in the next weeks. I wrote many articles about this chart, so I won’t go into further detail here.
Please note that we are already invested in Bitcoin since the 15th of June 2022, back then we announced our first positions on tradingview.
Long Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE: 20’714.20$
LONGTERM TARET: +120’000$