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Sunday Update - Bitcoin

To be honest, I am quite disappointed in bitcoin…

12H Chart - Bitcoin (Bitfinex)

The wave movements from earlier this month looked promising, and I estimated that bitcoin would continue its rally in our projected wave (iii). Unfortunately, bitcoin lost its bullish momentum and since the last top we declined by nearly 4000$. The bearish movements have been considerable impulsive, and this is VERY unusual for a wave (iii).

This resembles a clear warning “shot” and the probability of the highlighted alt.(i) – alt.(ii) has increased tremendously.

Bitcoin has formed a last doomed battle line at 26’536$, if we stay above this the scenario of a bullish wave (iii) remains. If the price should break below this level our alternative scenario gets activated, this would mean that bitcoin would crash into our highlighted green retracement zone (22043$ - 25279$).

This retracement zone consists of the 0.5, 0.618, and the 0.786 retracement – the most important levels of a wave (ii) correction… What may be good news to long-term holders may be a bad one for traders and especially scalpers. Personally, I wouldn’t mind another correction because it would offer another great opportunity to accumulate, but I can understand that traders with leveraged positions are stressed about this!

Mark the level of 26’536$ in your chart, if we break below this then our projected wave (iii) is invalidated. The alternative scenario alt.(ii) would push bitcoin back into the region of 22000$ - 24000$.

2D Chart - Bitcoin (Index!)

Please note that we are already invested in Bitcoin since the 15th of June 2022, back then we announced our first positions on tradingview.

Long Bitcoin (BTCUSD)




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