Good evening everyone!
Hope you had a lovely weekend and were able to celebrate the massive gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The situation is looking better in bitcoin and just like I said in our last update, a breach above the 1.386 extension at 27’411$ means good news for the market.
Currently, we are trading slightly above this level and bitcoin is yet not showing any signs of slowing down in this rally. I encourage everyone to be extra attentive today because we now estimate that the bullish wave (iii) scenario is the more likely one. To repeat myself again, we are invested in bitcoin since last year and whatever scenario of ours will play out – we are well positioned and relaxed.
As marked on the chart, the price goal of this bullish wave (iii) is at 35’436$, and it’s safe to say that bitcoin should enter our orange Fibonacci zone between the 1.618 and 2.00 extension in the next weeks. From my experience I know that a wave 3 mostly expands beyond this minimum target in crypto and I would be pleased if we could gain further ground. From there on we would then establish a corrective wave (iv), only to rise again in wave (v) until we establish the Macro Wave (1) top which I talked about in past updates.
Additionally, I want to say something about the situation in most altcoins, a few investors messaged me about this and got very nervous about this. Let me calm you guys down, the altcoins will start to push higher as soon as the momentum in bitcoin starts to slow down. I and my team have observed this many times before, it’s always bitcoin and Ethereum which go parabolic when the market is unsure of the future and as soon as the overall sentiment of investors is bullish, then the money really flows into altcoins.
To finish today’s update, the following two scenarios are described again shortly.
Scenario 1 (PRIMARY) – Bullish wave (iii)
We expect that the market will continue to climb higher since the resistance at 27’411$ has been breached. The overall movement matches the characteristics of a wave 3 really well and the price extended very high, so a final wave (c) seems rather unlikely.
The wave (iii) target is at 35'426$.
Scenario 2 (ALTERNATIVE) – Correction in wave (c)
Our alternative scenario is marked on the chart with a red flag, this scenario would mean that the whole impulse since 20K was only a wave (b) and we would shortly start a painful wave (c) correction. Based on the impulsiveness of the past movement, we would most likely tumble down towards 21K and would establish a “running flat” pattern.
Please note that we are already invested in Bitcoin since the 15th of June, back then we announced our first positions here on tradingview.
Long Bitcoin (BTCUSD)
AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE: 20’714.20$
LONGTERM TARET: +120’000$